Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction for Tuesday October 6 2026
The Milwaukee Brewers visit the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California, on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, for Game 3 of the National League Division Series. First pitch is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET with coverage on FS1. Milwaukee finished the regular season 103-59 overall and 48-33 on the road, while San Diego went 91-71 overall and 51-30 at home. The Brewers lead the series 2-0 after winning the first two games by scores of 3-2 and 4-3. DraftKings lists San Diego at -136 on the moneyline, with Milwaukee at +113, while the Padres are +165 at -1.5 runs and the Brewers are -201 at +1.5. The total is 7 runs, with the Over at -109 and Under at -111. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the postseason.
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee is scheduled to start Dustin May, although no individual postseason statistics were listed in the information available for this matchup. The right-hander takes the mound with the Brewers one victory away from advancing and with the benefit of a lineup that has produced just enough offense to win the first two games of the series.
San Diego counters with Nick Pivetta, who enters at 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through 3.1 postseason innings. The right-hander has allowed three hits and two walks while striking out four without surrendering a home run. The Padres need a strong outing from Pivetta after dropping consecutive one-run games in Milwaukee, especially with their season now on the line.
Milwaukee Keeps Finding Ways to Win
Milwaukee enters Game 3 on a five-game winning streak, and the Brewers have not needed blowout performances to get there. They beat San Diego 3-2 in Game 1 and 4-3 in Game 2 after closing the regular season with three straight wins over St. Louis. That ability to win close games has been the defining feature of this series so far.
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The Brewers finished the season batting .258 with 832 runs, 1,422 hits and 154 home runs. They posted a .341 on-base percentage and .403 slugging percentage. Milwaukee does not match San Diego's home-run total, but the Brewers finished with 110 more runs and a much stronger on-base percentage, giving them the more consistent offensive profile over the full season.
Milwaukee also finished with the better pitching numbers. The Brewers posted a 3.51 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP while holding opponents to a .221 batting average. The staff recorded 1,544 strikeouts against 518 walks. Those numbers have translated well into this series, where Milwaukee has allowed only five total runs through two games.
San Diego Returns Home Facing Elimination
The Padres now return to Petco Park needing a win to keep the series alive. San Diego lost both games in Milwaukee by one run, which makes the 0-2 hole feel harsher than the quality of play would suggest. The Padres have been competitive in both games, but the margin for error is now gone.
San Diego finished with a .244 team batting average, 722 runs, 1,314 hits and 183 home runs. The Padres posted a .319 on-base percentage and .398 slugging percentage. The power advantage over Milwaukee is clear, but San Diego has not been able to turn that edge into enough offense in this series.
The Padres finished with a 3.99 team ERA and 1.29 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .242. The staff recorded 1,315 strikeouts against 554 walks. Those numbers are not as strong as Milwaukee's, but San Diego does get the benefit of a 51-30 home record and now has no choice but to play with urgency.
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Picks and Prediction
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-201)
Milwaukee +1.5 is the side pick. The price is expensive, but the matchup strongly supports taking the extra run and a half with the team that has already won both games of the series. Each contest has been decided by exactly one run, and Milwaukee enters on a five-game winning streak with superior season-long pitching numbers. San Diego's home-field advantage and elimination-game urgency make the Padres dangerous, but asking Milwaukee simply to stay within one run provides the safer side in a series that has been extremely tight.
Pick: Under 7 (-111)
The Under 7 is the total pick. The first two games produced five and seven total runs, and Milwaukee has allowed only five runs in the series. The Brewers also finished the regular season with a 3.51 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .221 opponent batting average, while Pivetta enters with a 2.70 postseason ERA. San Diego should be more aggressive at home with its season on the line, but the series has already established a low-scoring pattern. A 4-2 or 3-2 result fits the matchup well.
Final Picks: Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-201) and Under 7 (-111)
This preview was completed on October 5, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.
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