Southern Miss vs Troy Picks and Predictions for Tuesday October 6 2026
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles visit the Troy Trojans at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama, on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, for the Sun Belt Conference opener for both teams. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET with coverage on ESPN2. Southern Miss enters at 1-3 overall and 0-2 on the road, while Troy is 2-2 overall with a perfect 2-0 record at home. Both teams had an extended break after last playing September 26. The current market has Troy favored by approximately 10 points, with the total sitting at 48.5. Be sure to check out our free college football picks for more college football predictions throughout the season.
Southern Miss Needs to Fix Its Run Defense
Southern Miss opened the season with an impressive 49-3 victory over Alcorn State, but things have gone in the opposite direction since. The Golden Eagles have lost three consecutive games, falling 43-8 at Auburn, 48-20 at home against UConn and 24-21 at Tulane. The Tulane performance was easily the most encouraging of the three defeats, as Southern Miss stayed within one possession after being outscored by 63 combined points in the previous two losses.
The Golden Eagles are averaging 24.5 points per game, along with 241.5 passing yards and 150.0 rushing yards. That gives Southern Miss enough offensive balance to make this matchup interesting. The larger problem has been on the other side of the football, where the Golden Eagles are surrendering 29.5 points per game. Their pass defense has been respectable at 193.3 yards allowed per game, but opponents have punished them on the ground.
Southern Miss is surrendering 235.3 rushing yards per game, one of the poorest marks in the FBS. Opponents are averaging 5.2 yards per rushing attempt against the Golden Eagles. That’s the matchup Troy should try to exploit Tuesday. Southern Miss can’t afford to consistently lose on early downs and allow the Trojans to control possession with the running game.
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Troy Returns Home After Consecutive Road Losses
Troy started the season 2-0 with home victories over Sam Houston and Alabama State. The Trojans beat Sam Houston 24-21 before handling Alabama State 34-17. Their fortunes changed once they went on the road, losing 27-17 at Missouri and 21-10 at Utah State. Troy therefore enters its conference opener on a two-game losing streak but remains undefeated at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
The Trojans average 21.3 points per game, 205.5 passing yards and 166.3 rushing yards. Those offensive numbers aren’t overwhelming, particularly after Troy managed only 27 combined points over its last two games. However, Southern Miss’ problems stopping the run create a favorable opportunity for an offense averaging 4.4 yards per rushing attempt.
Defense has been the more reliable part of Troy’s profile. The Trojans allow 21.5 points, 197.5 passing yards and only 111.8 rushing yards per game. That rushing defense could become particularly important against a Southern Miss offense that averages 150 yards on the ground. Troy is also allowing opponents to convert only 32% of their third downs, giving the Trojans another potential advantage when it comes to getting the Golden Eagles’ offense off the field.
Southern Miss vs Troy Picks and Predictions
Pick: Southern Miss +10
Southern Miss +10 is my side pick despite Troy having the stronger overall defensive profile. The biggest concern with laying double digits is Troy’s offense. The Trojans average only 21.3 points per game and scored 17 and 10 in their last two outings. Troy is also 0-2 ATS when favored by at least 9.5 points this season. Southern Miss’ run defense is a major concern, but the Golden Eagles showed improvement in their 24-21 loss at Tulane and have had additional preparation time before the conference opener. Troy can control this game without necessarily creating enough offensive separation to cover a double-digit number. I’ll take the points with Southern Miss.
Pick: Under 48.5
The Under 48.5 is the stronger play. None of Troy’s first four games has gone Over the posted total, and the Trojans have held opponents to 21.5 points per game. Troy’s offense hasn’t scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent this season and enters after producing only 27 combined points over its last two games. Southern Miss has defensive weaknesses, particularly against the run, but that actually gives Troy an avenue to control possession and shorten the game rather than relying on an aggressive passing attack. Troy’s defensive advantage and methodical offensive profile point toward another relatively low-scoring game.
Final Picks: Southern Miss +10 and Under 48.5
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