Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions for Sunday October 11 2026
The Las Vegas Raiders visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on Sunday, October 11, 2026. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM ET with coverage on CBS. Las Vegas enters at 3-1 after suffering its first loss, 30-27 against Kansas City, while New England improved to 2-2 with an impressive 29-26 road victory over previously unbeaten Buffalo. The Patriots are currently 3.5-point favorites, with the total at 45.5. Be sure to check out our free NFL picks for more NFL predictions throughout the season.
Las Vegas Has Earned More Respect Than This Line Suggests
The Raiders finally lost Sunday, but there wasn’t much shame in the result. Las Vegas took Kansas City to the wire before falling 30-27, and the Raiders have still scored 115 points while opening 3-1.
The offense has been the obvious strength. Las Vegas has consistently generated points and entered Week 5 with one of the league’s more productive passing attacks. That’s important because New England hasn’t shown enough offensive consistency to make playing from behind comfortable.
The defensive numbers aren’t nearly as impressive, particularly against the run. That gives New England a path to control the game, but getting more than a field goal with a 3-1 Raiders team is difficult to pass up.
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New England Comes Home After Its Biggest Win
New England’s 29-26 victory at Buffalo changed the perception of this matchup. The Patriots handed the Bills their first loss and now return home with an opportunity to climb above .500.
That victory deserves respect, but it also appears to have influenced the market significantly. New England opened much higher at some books before the spread settled around -3.5, and the Patriots still have important injury concerns on both sides of the football.
The larger question is whether New England can repeat Sunday’s offensive production. The Patriots have struggled for much of the season to consistently generate points, and Las Vegas has enough scoring ability to make them pay if that problem returns.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots Picks and Predictions
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Las Vegas +3.5 is the side pick. New England deserves credit for beating Buffalo, but I don’t want to overreact to one result. The Raiders are 3-1, have scored 115 points and just took Kansas City to the final minutes. Getting more than a field goal gives us protection in a matchup I expect to remain close throughout. New England may win at home, but Las Vegas has shown enough offensively to keep this within three.
Pick: Under 45.5
The Under 45.5 is the total pick. Las Vegas can score, but New England’s best path is controlling the game rather than entering a shootout. The Patriots have struggled offensively for much of the season despite Sunday’s breakthrough, and the Raiders’ biggest defensive weakness is against the run. That gives New England an incentive to play slowly and sustain possessions. A 23-20 type of game fits this matchup well.
Final Picks: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 and Under 45.5
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