Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction for Sunday October 4 2026
The Las Vegas Aces visit the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, on Sunday, October 4, 2026, for Game 1 of their WNBA semifinal series. Tipoff is scheduled for 4:00 PM ET with coverage on NBC. Las Vegas finished the regular season 31-13 overall and an impressive 16-6 on the road, while Golden State went 32-12 overall and 17-5 at home. Both teams needed three games to survive the opening round, with Las Vegas advancing past Indiana and Golden State eliminating Dallas. DraftKings has Golden State favored by 1.5 points at -102, with Las Vegas +1.5 at -118. The Valkyries are -115 on the moneyline and the Aces are -105. The total is 161.5, with both sides priced at -110. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the playoffs.
Las Vegas Brings the More Dangerous Offense
Las Vegas arrives in San Francisco after surviving a difficult three-game opening-round series against Indiana. The Aces won the opener 102-85 before suffering a 99-89 road loss in Game 2. Facing elimination Thursday, Las Vegas responded with a 94-83 victory to advance. The Aces have now won four of their last five games and scored at least 89 points in every contest during that stretch.
The season-long numbers explain why the Las Vegas offense is such a concern for Golden State. The Aces averaged 91.5 points per game while shooting 49% from the field, compared with Golden State's 82.2 points and 42% shooting. Las Vegas also averaged 33.4 rebounds, 22.0 assists, 4.9 blocks and 7.2 steals. That gives the Aces a substantial advantage in scoring efficiency and a 2.7-assist edge per game.
Defense is where the questions emerge. Las Vegas allowed 89.0 points per game, which is two more than Golden State surrendered. The Aces have also allowed at least 82 points in each of their last five games. That places considerable pressure on the offense to remain efficient. Las Vegas has demonstrated that it can win high-scoring playoff games, but Game 1 becomes more difficult if Golden State succeeds in slowing the pace at Chase Center.
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Golden State Gets Game 1 at Chase Center
Golden State's opening playoff series couldn't have been much more dramatic. The Valkyries dominated Dallas 104-80 in Game 1 before losing 108-100 in overtime on the road. Returning to Chase Center for the deciding game, Golden State responded with a 77-73 victory to advance. The Valkyries therefore went 2-0 at home during the series while losing their only road game.
That fits with Golden State's season-long home success. The Valkyries finished 17-5 at Chase Center and went 32-12 overall, one game better than Las Vegas. Golden State averaged 82.2 points per game while allowing 87.0, shooting 42% from the field. The Valkyries averaged 33.3 rebounds, 19.3 assists, 4.0 blocks and 7.8 steals. Their offensive statistics aren't nearly as impressive as Las Vegas', making defensive execution particularly important in this series.
The deciding win over Dallas provides a blueprint for Game 1. Golden State held an opponent that had scored 108 in the previous game to only 73 points. The Valkyries probably don't want to trade baskets with a Las Vegas team averaging more than 91 points per game. Their better path is controlling tempo, creating turnovers and forcing the Aces to execute against a set defense rather than allowing the game to become a transition battle.
Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries Picks and Prediction
Pick: Las Vegas Aces +1.5 (-118)
Las Vegas +1.5 is the side pick. Golden State deserves respect after going 17-5 at Chase Center, but the statistical difference offensively is difficult to overlook in a spread this small. The Aces averaged 9.3 more points per game, shot seven percentage points better from the field and averaged 2.7 more assists. Las Vegas also went 16-6 on the road, so playing away from home hasn't been a significant weakness. Golden State's defense gives the Valkyries a path to controlling Game 1, but with the spread essentially making this a pick'em, I'll take the points with the team carrying the stronger offensive profile.
Pick: Under 161.5 (-110)
The Under 161.5 is the total pick. Las Vegas has played several high-scoring games recently, but Golden State's deciding playoff victory provides a compelling reason to expect a different style Sunday. The Valkyries held Dallas to 73 points after surrendering 108 in Game 2, demonstrating their ability to make a significant defensive adjustment when the stakes were highest. Golden State is unlikely to benefit from allowing Las Vegas to dictate an up-tempo game, making pace control critical in Game 1. A score in the neighborhood of 81-78 would still provide enough offense for both teams while keeping the game below 161.5.
Final Picks: Las Vegas Aces +1.5 (-118) and Under 161.5 (-110)
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