New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction for Sunday October 4 2026
The New York Liberty visit the Atlanta Dream at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on Sunday, October 4, 2026, for Game 1 of their WNBA semifinal series. Tipoff is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET with coverage on ABC. New York finished the regular season 26-18 overall and 12-10 on the road, while Atlanta went 30-14 overall and 15-7 at home. Both teams swept their opening playoff series, but Atlanta enters on a five-game winning streak that includes consecutive victories over New York. DraftKings has Atlanta favored by 4.5 points at -105, with New York +4.5 at -115. The Dream are -170 on the moneyline and the Liberty are +142. The total is 172.5, with the Over at -115 and Under at -105. Be sure to check out our free WNBA picks for more WNBA predictions throughout the playoffs.
New York Rolls Through the Opening Round
New York enters the semifinals after an impressive first-round performance against Minnesota. The Liberty won 91-75 on the road before returning home and completing the sweep with an 87-71 victory. New York therefore outscored Minnesota by 32 points over the two games while allowing only 73 points per contest.
That defensive performance fits with New York's supplied season numbers. The Liberty averaged 89.6 points per game while allowing 73.0, giving them an enormous 16.6-point scoring differential. New York shot 46% from the field while averaging 35.5 rebounds, 20.8 assists, 4.2 blocks and 6.1 steals per game. The combination of efficient shooting and strong run prevention gives the Liberty a statistical profile capable of traveling in the postseason.
The problem is the opponent. New York lost its final two regular-season meetings with Atlanta, falling 95-84 on September 21 and 83-65 on September 23. Those results are difficult to dismiss because they occurred immediately before the playoffs. New York has clearly responded with two convincing postseason wins, but it now has to prove those recent struggles against Atlanta were correctable rather than a matchup problem.
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Atlanta Enters Game 1 on a Five-Game Winning Streak
Atlanta couldn't arrive at the semifinals in much better form. The Dream have won five consecutive games, including their two late-season victories over New York and a two-game playoff sweep of Washington. Atlanta won its opening playoff game 92-77 at home before completing the series with a 93-75 road victory. The Dream have won each of their last five games by at least 11 points.
The season-long offensive numbers are also impressive. Atlanta averaged 91.3 points per game while allowing 76.0, producing a 15.3-point scoring differential. The Dream shot 44% from the field and averaged 35.6 rebounds, 21.5 assists, 3.3 blocks and 9.1 steals. Atlanta's 9.1 steals per game particularly stand out, giving the Dream an opportunity to create transition offense and additional possessions from defensive pressure.
Home court adds another advantage. Atlanta went 15-7 at State Farm Arena during the regular season and finished four games ahead of New York in the Eastern Conference standings. The Dream have also scored at least 92 points in four of their last five games. New York's defense has been outstanding, but Atlanta has already demonstrated twice in the last two weeks that it can solve it.
New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction
Pick: Atlanta Dream -4.5 (-105)
Atlanta -4.5 is the side pick. New York was impressive in sweeping Minnesota, but the recent head-to-head results strongly favor the Dream. Atlanta beat the Liberty 95-84 and 83-65 in consecutive games late in September, winning those matchups by 11 and 18 points. The Dream have now won five straight overall, with every victory coming by double digits, and they return home after finishing 15-7 at State Farm Arena. New York's playoff defense makes laying points less comfortable, but Atlanta's current form, home-court advantage and recent success in this exact matchup make the Dream -4.5 the preferred side.
Pick: Under 172.5 (-105)
The Under 172.5 is the total pick. Both teams can score, but their defensive numbers are difficult to ignore. New York allowed only 73.0 points per game during the season and held Minnesota to 75 and 71 in the opening round. Atlanta allowed 76.0 per game and held Washington to 77 and 75 during its playoff sweep. The two recent head-to-head meetings finished with 179 and 148 combined points, but the 83-65 game is particularly relevant because it showed Atlanta can beat New York without needing a shootout. With the stakes increasing in Game 1 of the semifinals and both defenses performing well entering the series, 172.5 provides enough room to back the Under.
Final Picks: Atlanta Dream -4.5 (-105) and Under 172.5 (-105)
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