Free NFL Handicapping Plays - Sports Picks from Premium Cappers

 
The NFL Comp play is on the Tennessee Titans plus the 11+ points here today. The Titans are in a nice system that has cashed 27 of 28 times since 2005 and pertains to non division grass road dogs of 2 or more off a road loss if they had less than 18 minutes of time of possession is back to back games and are taking on a team like Baltimore that allowed more than 7 points. The Titans have a statistically better defense and their offense which has been below average should do better here than it did last week in the rainy weather last week in NY. Baltimore off the dramatic win in Brazil getting a field goal despite having just 8 seconds left are likely to bounce a bit here as they play off the long distance with no additional rest. Look for the Titans to keep this within the number today. GL Rob V-
 
SU: 15-14 
ATS: 27-1-1

Team: 21.7
Opp: 22.0
 
 
 
Oct 04, 2026 01:00 Sun 4 2026 Titans Ravens away - - - - - 11.5 42.5

(253) New England Patriots at (254) Buffalo Bills: Spread ***This is a 4% Client Release Play***

4% New England Patriots +7.0 (-115)

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Here is my full video breakdown and analysis on YouTube:

If you can’t see the link, search YouTube for: The Mad Russian Wagertalk

I’m taking the full touchdown with New England in a divisional matchup that has been much tighter than the perception of these two teams would suggest.

The last SIX meetings between New England and Buffalo have all been decided by one possession.

And we don’t have to go very far back for proof that New England can compete in this building. Last October, the Patriots went into Buffalo as an underdog and won outright, 23-20. Drake Maye completed 22-of-30 passes for 273 yards and led the game-winning drive.

Here’s another number I absolutely love in this spot:

New England was a PERFECT 8-0 on the road during the 2025 regular season, then won another road game in the postseason to finish 9-0 away from home.

They became the ONLY TEAM IN NFL HISTORY to finish a season 9-0 on the road.

So going into Buffalo and competing in this environment is nothing new for this group.

The Patriots were embarrassed 35-6 last week in Jacksonville, and I actually like this setup because of it.

One of the situations I’m always interested in is a good-to-great team, with a good-to-great coach and a good-to-great quarterback, coming off a humiliating performance the week before.

Those teams spend the entire week hearing about how bad they looked, what’s wrong with them and whether they’ve been exposed.

With Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, I trust the response.

Vrabel-coached teams are 26-17-4 ATS following a loss, including 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10.

Maye is also 8-3 ATS outdoors coming off a loss, including 8-2 ATS in his last 10 qualifying games.

Buffalo is 3-0, but I don’t think the Bills have played nearly as cleanly as that record suggests.

They committed FIVE turnovers last week against the Chargers and didn’t take their first lead until the fourth quarter.

Through three weeks, Buffalo has also committed 25 penalties for 219 yards, nearly 73 penalty yards per game.

That matters when we’re catching a full touchdown.

I’m not asking New England to be the better team for 60 minutes. I’m asking them to stay within one score against a familiar divisional opponent that has been making mistakes and giving opponents extra possessions.

There is one injury situation I’m watching closely. Christian Gonzalez, Christian Barmore and Morgan Moses have all missed practice time for New England, while Buffalo CB Christian Benford has also been dealing with a toe injury. Drake Maye has practiced fully despite his shoulder designation.

New England got humiliated last week, but this is still a talented team with a coach and quarterback I trust to respond.

Add in a team that went a historic 9-0 away from home last season, six consecutive meetings in this rivalry decided by one possession, and a full touchdown in our pocket and I think this is a very strong bounce-back spot.

Buffalo may win the football game.

I just think SEVEN is too many.

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This is a 3% PLAY

Play: (SF) Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rush Yards (-113) at Fanduel

Brock Purdy has quietly become extremely consistent with his legs, and I like him to go Over 17.5 rushing yards against Denver. Purdy has cleared this number in seven consecutive games, rushing for at least 21 yards in every one of them. He has been especially productive to begin this season with 29, 30 and 34 rushing yards, averaging 31.0 rushing yards per game.

Purdy has needed only 10 rushing attempts to produce 93 yards through three games, averaging an impressive 9.3 yards per carry. He doesn't need designed quarterback runs to clear a number this low; his ability to escape pressure, take open running lanes and scramble on passing downs gives him multiple opportunities to pick up yards throughout the game.

The matchup also sets up well. Denver enters Week 4 allowing 143.7 rushing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL, while opponents are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against the Broncos. San Francisco's offense has already averaged 136.3 rushing yards per game, and Denver has consistently struggled to contain opponents on the ground through its first three games.

With Purdy clearing 17.5 rushing yards in seven straight games, averaging 31 rushing yards through the first three weeks and facing one of the league's weakest run defenses so far, I like Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rushing Yards against Denver.

(I would play up to 23.5)

This is a 2% PLAY

Play: (GB) Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+175) at Fanduel

Christian Watson has become Jordan Love’s favorite scoring weapon, and I like him to find the end zone again against Tampa Bay. Watson has now scored a touchdown in five consecutive games played going back to last season, scoring against Baltimore and Chicago in the playoffs before finding the end zone in each of Green Bay’s first three games this season.

Watson has been one of the hottest receivers in football to start 2026, catching 17 passes for 284 yards and four touchdowns through three games. He has scored twice against Minnesota before adding touchdowns against the Jets and Falcons, while receiving 29 targets, showing that his production is being supported by consistent volume rather than just a few big plays.

Touchdowns have always been a major part of Watson’s game. He scored six touchdowns in only 10 regular-season games last year, and his combination of 6-foot-4 size and elite speed makes him dangerous both in the red zone and on explosive plays. Green Bay has also been designing opportunities specifically for Watson near the goal line, giving him multiple ways to cash an anytime touchdown prop.

With Watson scoring in five straight games played, already recording four touchdowns through three games this season, and continuing to operate as one of Jordan Love’s primary targets, I like Christian Watson to score an Anytime Touchdown against Tampa Bay.

Take Detroit - Carolina OVER (#277-278) 

The Lions are a dead nuts ‘Over’ team right now; an emerging trend worth riding on Sunday Night in Carolina.  Detroit has cluster injuries in the secondary - Geno Smith absolutely lit them up last week; bad news agianst Bryce Young this week.  Every opponent the Lions have faced has scored 24+ against them, exactly what I expect from the Panthers here.  But Dan Campbell’s offense is balanced and elite, hanging 31+ in each of their first three games.  We saw the Panthers give up 59 on this field the last time they saw a ‘balanced and elite’ offense (Chicago in Week 1).  Expect fireworks!  Take the OVER.

Take the LA Rams (#265)

This ‘Daily Double’ video below has my free picks for Rams - Eagles and Colts - Commanders early start from London in NFL action on Sunday. Here’s a brief write-up for Philly - LAR.

The injury report is very meaningful for this game.  Remember, the Eagles are trying to learn Sean Mannion’s new offense, but they’ve been hit with cluster injuries to their receiving corps (not to mention the departure of AJ Brown).  As it stands as I write this on Friday, Devanta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both OUT, leaving Dontayvion Wicks and rookie Makai Lemon as Jalen Hurts’ primary pass catchers.  Philly’s offense hasn’t worked, held to a single TD in Chicago on Monday Night; held to 10 first downs against the Commanders before that.  LA won’t forget blowing a three score lead on this field last year and they’ve got urgency off a rough loss in Denver last Sunday Night.  Road chalk worth laying.  Take the Rams.

I'm willing to lay the price with Houston here. The Texans are in a spot where they can't afford to slip up, and I like them to come through on the moneyline. It's not a huge price, but I prefer taking Houston straight up rather than worrying about the spread.

This is a free play on DET TT Over.

The Lions rank 3rd in the NFL in scoring averaging over 30 points per game, and they rank dead last in scoring defense allowing 32 points per game. Goff is cooking, and Jamyr Gibbs is an absolute weapon with six TDs in the first three games of the season. The Panthers are 1-2 with a fraud win over Atlanta with Cooper Rush at QB. The Bears scored 59 points, and rank for 291 yards and six TDs the last time an NFL game was played here. We are only asking the Lions to do half of what the Bears did.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Seagrave is on a strong 15-12 (56%) run with his posted Free Picks since August 27th!

Next Winner HERE:

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Over 88.5 (-113):

Jonathan Taylor has covered this line in 2 of his first 3 games of the season with 68, 92 and 98 yards for an average of 86 yards per game. The Indianapolis Colts have only handed the ball of on 44% of their offensive snaps, but Taylor has still seen amazing volume with 23, 24 and 19 rushing attempts. Indianapolis has an elite offensive line that currently ranks 6th in run blocking according to PFF. The Washington Commanders did a solid job keeping the lid on Seattle Seahawk and Dallas Cowboy running backs, but Saquon Barkley did run for 83 yards against them in Week 1. However, Washington's linebacker core has been bit by the injury bug as Leo Chenal is out for the season (neck) and Frankie Luvu is dealing with a nagging groin injury. This game will be played overseas in London, and the Colts find themselves as -3.5-point favorites which should set Taylor up with a positive game script.

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks 12 game win streak ended at Washington against a backup QB in a game that got away from them. They return home to face the struggling LA Chargers, and this looks like an opportunity for Seattle to get back on track. The Chargers rank 29th in scoring averaging less than 15 points per game. Expecting them to be successful on the road against the NFL's best defense isn't realistic. The Seahawks rank #1 against the pass allowing an average of 142 passing yards per game so far. The LA offense with new OC Mike McDaniel isn't looking good, and there doesn't appear to be a lot of talent around Justin Herbert.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on HOU.

The Texans are 0-3, but all hope is not lost. They lost their first three games last season, and went on to win 12 of their next 14 games to make the playoffs. They had the #1 ranked defense last season, and so far they have struggled against the likes of Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Luckily they face the one-dimensional Cowboys and Dak Prescott coming off a game in Brazil where they snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. This is a classic "GET RIGHT" game for Houston.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia has won ten of the last 11 meetings with Los Angeles, including three victories over the last two seasons. Eight of the last nine contests between the Eagles and Rams have gone over the total. LA blew a 26-7 lead at Lincoln Financial Field last season. Jalen Hurts connected with DeVonta Smith for the go-ahead touchdown with under two minutes remaining, and the Eagles' special teams unit blocked LA's game-winning field goal attempt as time expired. We're not sure how much of the Rams' early-season struggles should be blamed on their schedule and travel, but Sean McVay has been elite at preventing losing streaks and getting a strong bounce-back effort following a loss. Los Angeles is 34-20-3 against the spread following a straight-up loss, and blindly backing the Rams in this spot would have produced a +20.5-percent ROI since McVay took over the Rams' program. Rams' wide receiver Puka Nacua has missed each of the last two games, and head coach Sean McVay was not beaming with optimism that Nacua would be back at full strength in this game. Speaking of 'not beaming with optimism,' that would be a kind way to describe what Eagles fans are feeling this week after watching their team score seven points on Monday night in Chicago. If the timekeeper had a slightly-faster finger, Philadelphia would have gotten shut-out against the Bears because the lone touchdown was scored with one second (probably closer to 0.1) remaining in the first half. Since the beginning of the 2025 season, the Eagles' offense has produced 60 drives that have gone three-and-out (29.0-percent is the highest rate in the NFL). During that time, Philadelphia's average distance-to-go on third down is 7.7 yards, which is the second-highest mark in the league. The Eagles' rushing attack has produced either zero or negative yards on 131 rushing attempts, which is the second-highest mark in the league. The coaching changes and wide receiver moves have produced very little difference thus far. The Rams know how to bounce back from a loss under McVay, and while Lincoln Financial Field is typically a tough place to play, the Philly Phaithful may have an appetite to turn sour on the home team if this offensive spiral continues. Play LA

Take Arizona (#257) on the Moneyline

In two games with Jameis Winston behind center, the Giants have scored a grand total of zero touchdowns.  New York managed to steal a ‘four field goals was good enough’ win last Sunday, but it’s surely worth noting that the G-men are just 1-7 SU/ATS in their last eight tries off a single victory; not a team stringing good performances together.  The season ending injury to stud pass rusher Brian Burns won’t help matters, especially given the Cardinals propensity for grinding out first downs. Arizona had nearly 39 minutes of possession last week while hanging 30 points on the 49ers.  The early week sharp $$ has shown on the road team for good reason! In this near pick ‘em pointspread range, my experience has shown that it’s preferrable to take Arizona on the moneyline – a SU win ensures we get paid. Take the Cardinals.

FREE PICK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ATS) | Good until +3.0.

It's been a bad opening three weeks for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, there's no doubt. But, HC Todd Bowles is right when he says that they are still just one game out of first in the division. To make matters worse, Baker Mayfield is out for at least a few weeks. I think that Jalon Daniels will be ready though. Green Bay still isn't at full strength by any means either. I like TB's chances of coming away with it's first win, even with how bad it's looked. Go with the Buccaneers.